Tuesday, April 22, 2008

The Long Tail

James asks, "What does "long-tailed" mean?"


The "Long Tail" is the right-hand side of a graphed power law function, which emerges when a few items have a high value and many many items have a low value. Think of sales of popular music or books, or frequency of words in written English.

More to the point, think of Amazon.com vs. Wal-Mart's book section. Because inventory costs are low, Amazon can afford to sell very infrequent copies of rather obscure books - those that occupy the Long Tail. Low inventory and delivery cost means the threshold for commercial viability is drastically lower and more creators can get a (tiny) slice of the action.

Between now and the future

Jessamyn West links to a good comment from publisher Tim O'Reilly about how technology is upending business models:

I don’t doubt that in the long run, there will be new long-tail economic models that support investment in specialized forms of content that don’t have the volume to be supported by advertising, but we’re heading for a really tricky period where the old models will be dead before the new ones have arrived.

Agreed. I'm fairly blase about how the publishing business will shake out, eventually. But in the meantime, the growing pains will be rather intense - something the music industry is experiencing and which the Kodak Company wisely foresaw and prepared for.

Clinton is seduced by the dim side

Or at least that's what she wants us to believe.